Taoiseach
Leo Varadkar said: "In 10 or 12 weeks' time, we could find ourselves
needing to find a lot of money to save people's jobs because there are people
working in the food industry, in agriculture, SMEs, and in small exporters,
whose jobs may be under threat."
More
than 50,000 jobs will be lost amid rising food and clothing prices if the UK
continues on the path towards a disorderly Brexit.
Doomsday
predictions on the impact of a no-deal scenario compiled by the Department of
Finance suggest the economic impact will be "particularly severe".
The agriculture sector and small businesses who export to the UK will begin to
shed employees during the second half of the year, followed by a
"deepening" of the crisis in 2020.
Capital
projects such as the Metro could also be in danger while promises of income tax
cuts will be reviewed ahead of the next budget.
A
majority of British politicians last night voted for Theresa May to formally
demand a new deal on the Irish backstop - despite continued insistence from the
EU that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be renegotiated.
The
move was met with fury in Dublin where ministers feel betrayed. One senior
Government source told the Irish Independent: "Theresa May just tried to
torch the deal we all spent two years working on, and contradicted what she
herself said about owing Northern Ireland the backstop as the only
non-aspirational way to avoid a hard Border."
Until
recent days, Mrs May always maintained that the deal she agreed with the EU in
November was the best one possible. However, she has now backed calls for the
backstop to be replaced with undefined "alternative arrangements".
Adding
further confusion to the UK position, MPs also passed a motion to "reject
leaving the EU without a deal".
Mrs
May will now go to Brussels to demand "legally binding changes to the
Withdrawal Agreement".
A
spokesperson for EU Council President Donald Tusk immediately responded by
saying the deal "is not open for renegotiation".
In
a statement, the Irish Government echoed that message. It said the backstop
"balances the UK position on customs and the single market with avoiding a
hard Border".
"A
change in the UK red lines could lead to a change in the Political Declaration
on the framework for the future relationship, and a better overall
outcome," it added.
Meanwhile,
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said it was very difficult to accurately
predict the full scale of the risks a cliff-edge Brexit brings. He said food
shortages will not be an issue because of the high level of produce which
originates in Ireland.
However,
the economy would be 4.25pc smaller in 2023 than currently projected. Mr
Donohoe said this figure "hides an even larger hit to economic activity in
labour-intensive sectors such as agri-food and indigenous small and
medium-sized enterprises".
Current
forecasts expect an unemployment rate of 5pc by 2023, but a no-deal Brexit
would push that up by two percentage points. A projection that 2.49 million
people would be in jobs here by 2023 falls to 2.44 million under the
departmental analysis.
"Employment
growth would still take place in our economy, but we will have 55,000 fewer
citizens working than we would've had, had an orderly Brexit and transition
period taken place," Mr Donohoe said.
The
minister added large employers do still see positive prospects for jobs and
investments in Ireland, however among smaller companies that have to manage
their own supply chains into the UK, the level of concern is growing.
"It
is important to emphasise that we do have an economy still capable of
delivering growth," he said.
However,
every household would see their disposable income reduced as the price of food
and clothing rises.
John
McCarthy, Chief Economist at the Department of Finance, said many high street
chain stores are likely to be affected as around one quarter of imports come
from the UK.
No comments:
Post a Comment