Data reveals an economic downturn in Europe is far closer than you think as the effects of the crash are still with us in our own household accounta, despite the recovery in headline economic numbers, we are still depositing more than we borrow even with the lowest interest rates in history

Yet there is clearly something amiss with the global economy, the tepid, yet long-lived recovery from the 2008 crisis has created millions of jobs worldwide, but done so without putting upward pressure on wages, which economic theory suggests should have happened.

If there's a consensus among economists it is that while economic growth in the Eurozone will be slower this year, we are still not headed for a recession.

The same goes for the global outlook, absent some huge shock.

By the same token, rising employment rolls should push up inflation, yet it has remained stubbornly stuck.

That suggests that the effects of the crash are still with us. You can see this clearly in our own household accounts that show, despite the recovery in headline economic numbers, we are still depositing more than we borrow even with the lowest interest rates in history.

"Uncomfortably loose monetary policy, high government debt, elevated asset prices and trade imbalances make for a precarious backdrop and suggest that the after-effects of the global financial crisis may still not have fully played out," said Vicky Redwood, senior economic adviser at consultancy Capital Economics.

Those concerns are now showing up in headline economic data for the eurozone, whose economies have, by and large, been kept afloat by buoyant demand from China and the United States, enabling the bloc to paper over the cracks of slack domestic demand and a budget straitjacket.

The scale of the lift given to Europe by China since the 2008 crash, when it implemented a massive budget boost, is the near-tripling of exports there from €78.3bn to €197.65bn in 2017.

That has now faded and demand for everything from BMWs to iPhones has fallen.

Last week, the German Federal Statistics Office said that Europe's largest economy grew by just 1.5pc in 2018, down from 2.2pc in 2017 and media reports suggest that Berlin is considering cutting its growth forecast for this year to 1pc.

The problem is that what had appeared to be an isolated incident in Europe with Italy, a budget basket case with a populist government, headed for recession has now spread to both Germany and France, according to the most recent economic data.

Growth in the Eurozone hit a four-year low in the third quarter of 2018, the latest survey available, with an expansion of just 0.2pc.

The rules of gravity that apply to the German export machine, which accounts for around half of all economic output there, are doubly so for Ireland where exports are equivalent to more than 100pc of gross domestic product.

And that is before you factor in the risk of Brexit.

Our own Central Bank has joined the downgrade game and, more importantly put a figure on what economic growth here could be this year in the event of a hard Brexit, at just 1.5pc.

The Central Bank of Ireland was at pains to emphasise that 1.5pc was a "scenario" and not a forecast and that its central assumption was still for a negotiated Brexit, though given the machinations in Westminster and just 62 days until exit day it is unclear how they can be so sure.

What is clear, however, is that forecasting bodies, whether central banks of the likes of the International Monetary Fund, have a poor record of peering into the future.

The European Central Bank has consistently overestimated inflation and unemployment in the past five years. An analysis of the IMF's record of spotting recessions showed that they only correctly forecast them when the downturn was well underway.

In October 2008, the IMF predicted that the US economy would expand in 2009, in reality, it shrank almost 3pc.

Lest we think that the economists on the banks of the Liffey are any smarter, it is worth remembering that the Central Bank of Ireland' s forecast for the economy in the first quarter of 2008 was for 3pc growth. In fact, the economy shrank by 3.9pc.

That is not to say "don't trust the experts", which has become the refrain of Brexiteers and officials in the Trump administration.

But it is a warning that if a recession is creeping up on us, it will be well under way before the government and central banks catch up with the economic realities.

And whether it is Brexit, budget and banking concerns in Italy, the 'gilets jaunes' protests in France, new car emissions tests hitting the mighty German export machine, or tightening credit in the United States thanks to rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve, it is abundantly clear that all is not well.

"What's more, the ready availability of domestic explanations means there is a risk of complacency about whether there is something more fundamental going on at a global level," said Ms Redwood.

So, the likelihood is for more negative headlines and the best plan of action is probably to prepare for the worst.